A groundbreaking academic report launched today1, highlights critical challenges in the current ‘all-electric’ approach to decarbonisation of the UK energy system. Using more electricity to heat buildings and power cars increases our dependence on the electricity system to unprecedented levels. The report explores a range of possible ‘criticalities’ likely to arise as a result, which in turn, risk undermining the Government’s ability to meet stringent 80% cuts in CO2 emissions by 2050.
The report, by leading energy scientists at Imperial College London and the University of Surrey2, also outlines a more integrated approach to energy supply. It proposes that ‘waste’ heat from power generation could meet a significant share of our demand for energy, providing a more efficient, flexible and resilient energy system. Starting to develop this system today could reduce the anticipated stresses on the electricity system. To this end, heat storage can be used to help manage the intermittent output of some renewables and reduce growth in peak demand that has potential to place real strain on the electricity system in 2050.
Most scenarios for a 2050 energy system – including those used to develop the UK Government’s Low Carbon Transition Plan3 – anticipate that electricity will increasingly be used to meet energy needs for transport and heating. The report outlines that such a transition could result in a doubling of peak electricity demand. Realising this ‘all-electric’ scenario is in turn dependent on a number of critical outcomes, all which must be met to achieve carbon abatement targets. These include:
The report finds that any route to a low carbon future brings major challenges. A system that makes greater use of combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating (DH) can however mitigate many of the more demanding aspects of the ‘all-electric’ approach. Used in combination with biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology for fossil fuels, CHP and DH infrastructure have a key role to play up to 2050 and beyond.
The integrated approach proposed in the report, assumes an energy system where CHP and DH, used in combination with a decarbonised electricity grid, delivering the following benefits (as compared to a leading ‘all-electric’ scenario):
The integrated scenario therefore offers energy savings and other benefits, helping improve prospects for meeting our targets. Findings however illustrate the need for government to adopt a broader focus in policy formulation around decarbonisation. These, and other highlights of the report, promise to spark debate on the direction and focus of current policy. The Government is expected to publish its own work on a roadmap to 2050 in the coming weeks.
The report was commissioned by the Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA). The CHPA has already shared many of the report findings with Government. Going forward, it looks to build on the work completed to date, helping to develop a rational and comprehensive response to the energy challenges the UK faces.
Speaking at the launch of the report, Graham Meeks, Director of the CHPA commented:
“Diversity is the key to maintaining affordability and security of our energy supplies as we transition to a low-carbon economy. The report highlights the enormous risks we face in focusing on electricity to meet our demands for energy services. But it also demonstrates that more robust, dynamic and efficient pathways are open to us, recovering the waste heat from power generation, to create a more integrated and resilient energy system."
Imperial scientist and one of the authors of the report, Dr Rob Gross, explains:
"No route to 80% carbon reduction is without challenges. But it seems clear that improvements can be made to the ‘all- electric’ approach we are currently pursuing. The integrated scenario we have identified offers a potentially extremely valuable contribution to efforts to green our energy system.”
Keith Allott, Head of Climate Change, WWF, welcomed the report findings:
“A revolution in energy efficiency and the creation of smarter grids powered by renewable energy sources could put us on the pathway to a zero-carbon economy. But we need to think carefully about what that would mean for meeting the country’s needs for heat. A strong focus on energy efficiency is the low-risk, low-cost solution, and combined heat and power and district heating networks have a central role to play in delivering this. If the UK intends to meet its carbon targets, there simply isn't room for ruling out these options.”
Janine Freeman, head of Public Affairs at National Grid said:
“As operator of both the UK gas and electricity transmission systems, we share the view that we should explore the alternatives for providing low carbon heat. Electrification of heating will not provide the whole answer because it will not be efficient to build power stations and electricity networks to supply electric heat for the one or two months a year when it is really cold. Our own work on the use of biomethane for injection into the gas grid indicates this could make a significant contribution to domestic heating. And as this report sets out, other technologies such as CHP and solar thermal will also have important roles to play in a decarbonised energy future.”
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For more information:
Media contact:
Tom Fern
Communications Manager
Email: tom.fern@chpa.co.uk
Tel: 020 7802 4296
Mobile: 07817 575 467
Notes to editors:
1. The research provides new insights through novel ‘whole system’ approach, using diagrams of current and projected entire energy flows to help interpret and assess the implications of 2050 scenario modelling. The report also looks specifically at the issue of heat (as part of the energy mix alongside power and transport). Heat currently accounts for some 41% of final energy consumption. This is greater than any other form of energy end use including transport. It is expected to remain a significant fraction of energy use in the future to 2050.
2. The research team comprised a research team of 7 academics from Imperial College London and the University of Surrey. The group includes leading scientists in the field of energy policy such as Dr Rob Gross (see biog here) and Professor Matt Leach (see biog here).
3. The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan outlines a route-map for how the UK will meet emission reduction targets for 2020. It also outlines the Government’s approach to developing a similar vision for how it will achieve a reduction of 80% in CO2 emissions by 2050.
4. The all-electric scenario implies total capacity increases of 74 GW between now and 2050. This is an effective doubling of installed capacity on today’s figure (standing at 80 GW).
5. MTOE stands for million tonnes of oil equivalent. It has been used as a standard unit of measure in the report in representation of total energy use. Total final energy consumption in the UK in 2007 was 165.8 MTOE.
3 of 4
6, 8 & 9. Figures provided by the CHPA, based on analysis and findings provided by the report
from Imperial & Surrey. Detail on approach and assumptions underpinning these stats are available on request.
7. Report findings show that installed electricity production capacities approximately double by to 2050 from around 80GW to over 150GW. This represents a shift in the proportion of electricity from 18% of final energy consumption in 2007 to 49% in 2050.
About the CHPA
The Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA) is one of the leading industry bodies active in the sustainable and clean energy sector. The Association is a representative body supported by member subscription. It has over 100 members active across a range of technologies and markets, from microCHP to major utility-scale energy plants serving industrial processes and city-wide district heating systems. Our aim is to support our members’ interests through the development and maintenance of positive market conditions for CHP and district heating. For more information about the CHPA see: http://www.chpa.co.uk.
About CHP & DH
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is the highly efficient integrated generation of usable heat and electricity. CHP works by recovering heat from the power generation process and putting it to work in industry, buildings and homes. Making the most efficient use of scarce and expensive renewable and fossil-fuel, CHP can mitigate our dependency on gas and help maintain the viability of our strategic energy and industrial installations.
The Government has a target to see 10 GWe of CHP capacity installed by 2010. The latest Government estimate of installed CHP capacity is 5.5 GWe (DUKES 2008). This accounted for some 7% of the UK’s electricity supply.
Government estimates indicate that CHP saved between 10.8 and 14.4 million tonnes of CO2 in the same year.
The Government’s Energy White Paper also predicts an increase in the generation of electricity from new CHP plants to 15.5 GW by 2020. This is linked to an estimated reduction of 13 million tonnes of CO2 – already allocated against the Carbon Budget for 2018 to 2022 – and serves as an implicit target against which the government will need to adopt the policies and mechanisms to secure its delivery.
A district heating scheme comprises a network of insulated pipes used to deliver heat from the point of generation, in the form of hot water or steam, to an end user. District heating networks provide the means to transport heat efficiently. Heat networks can also be supplied with heat from a diverse range of sources including; power stations, waste-to-energy facilities, biomass-fuelled boilers and CHP plants, gas-fired CHP units, heat pumps, electric boilers and even solar thermal arrays.